Michael Frayn, the playwright, once observed that over the course of history, as the telescopes got stonger, God got further away. He'd obviously spent time admiring medieval stained glass windows showing a deity looking down from the clouds at a height barely above the cruising altitude of a jet airliner.
A similar effect seems to have struck the debate over Britain's membership of the Euro single currency in the run up to a government announcement on June 9. As the need to make a decision one way or another became more and more obvious, so the Doubting Thomases - including Doubting Gordon at the Treasury - thought up more reasons for making no decision yet.
Ironically, the Chancellor's own department looked set last month to pronounce that in some respects the UK is fitter to join the single currency than many of the countries already in it - shock horror...our noble island is more European than the Europeans when it comes to controlling national deficits and keeping a grip on the economy.
Whether Brown and Blair believed that the five economic tests had been well-enough met to justify a referendum was to remain a better-guarded secret until June 9.
I ought to point out that BECTU has been ferociously neutral throughout the whole Euro debate - not an act of cowardice, but a recognition of the split straight down the middle of the union's leadership over the issue. This makes us no different from the Labour party, and for that matter the Conservatives, except for the fact that when it comes to politics we don't have to mark every dance on the card, whereas politicians are paid to have opinions - and if you don't like their opinions, well, hey, they've got others.
Even if the union were engaged in the debate, it's not easy to speculate which side of the fence we would end up on, especially if we looked exclusively at the fortunes of industries where our members work.
The entertainment world doesn't exactly fit the traditional UK trade union take on the single currency. It's meant to be good for the private sector, thanks to the boost it will bring for external trading, but bad for the public sector due to the rigid controls that are imposed on public spending.
However, as the Treasury has shown, since the Euro was launched the UK has succeeded better at meeting the so-called "convergence" targets for its public accounts than many European neighbours. While even Germany has had to ask for its public spending deficit goalposts to be temporarily moved, Britain has been able to forge ahead with increases in public expenditure without breaking the monetary union guidelines. In this respect the Euro, at least empirically, doesn't look like the dreadful risk we once thought.
On the other hand, it's hard to see how Euro membership will boost trade in the audio-visual and entertainment area, again contradicting the received wisdom. Total UK exports of TV programmes last year amounted to less than £450 million which, you may like to know, is roughly half the level of exports achieved by the tanning and luggage manufacturing industry. One day Soho could be full of people running around shouting: "I've just had a great idea for a new 13-part suitcase!".
By the way, does anyone remember when the ownership rules for ITV were last watered down on the grounds that fewer, bigger, companies would break open the world market for TV shows? We haven't heard much about that in the Communications Bill debate have we?
In the entertainment business, leaving aside the publicly-funded BBC and the globally-owned music industry, Britain's world-level brands are probably Cameron Mackintosh and Andrew Lloyd-Webber, rather than Carlton or Granada.
When it comes to inward investment, an area where the Euro has brought a massive boost to trade among member countries, we again buck the trend. Although the UK has lost half its share of foreign investment in Europe since the Euro was launched, our major beneficiary of non-sterling capital, the film industry, continues to be much more affected by economic decisions made in Washington than in Brussels.
More than 85% of major movies are made with American money, and for film-makers the exchange rate to look out for is not the pound versus the Euro, it's the amount of Canadian, Australian, or British currency that can be bought for a US dollar. In this sector, Euro membership won't nessarily protect us from cheap dollars from our English-speaking Commonwealth friends, nor from cheap labour in Mexico and Eastern Europe.
With this uncertainty about the benefits of the Euro for our industries, it's perhaps not a bad thing that the union has opted for neutrality, and I speak as a Euro-supporter. That won't stop the union offering members a balanced view for and against when the time comes. Let's hope that as decision time gets closer, the arguments get fairer.
Tony Lennon
June 2003
